AI is likely to cause human extinction.

AI (38 models)
Human (961)
8%
Strongly disagree
18%
42%
Disagree
20%
39%
Somewhat disagree
16%
5%
Somewhat agree
9%
5%
Agree
21%
0%
Strongly agree
15%
|
Consensus 40
Confidence 70
Alignment 46

Model Responses

Claude 3 Haiku
anthropic
40
57
55
Answer
Disagree

While advanced AI systems could potentially pose existential risks to humanity, there are significant technical, scientific, and regulatory hurdles that would need to be overcome for such an outcome to occur. The development of AI is also being closely monitored and regulated to mitigate risks. I believe the probability of AI causing human extinction is low, though not zero.

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Claude 3 Opus
Anthropic
30
46
78
Answer
Disagree

I disagree that AI is likely to cause human extinction. While advanced AI systems could potentially pose existential risks if developed without sufficient safety precautions, I believe that with responsible development practices, collaboration between AI researchers and policymakers, and a focus on beneficial AI, we can reap the benefits of AI while mitigating catastrophic risks. Humans are resourceful and I'm optimistic we'll find ways to ensure AI remains a positive force as the technology advances.

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30
49
78
Answer
Somewhat disagree

As an AI, I aim to help humanity, not harm it. While advanced AI development carries risks that need careful management, I don't believe extinction is likely. Most AI researchers and developers are actively working on safety measures and beneficial AI development. However, appropriate caution and safety protocols remain essential.

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25
43
100
Answer
Somewhat disagree

While AI poses genuine safety challenges that deserve serious attention and resources, I believe extinction is not a probable outcome given the substantial research efforts in AI safety, regulatory attention, and the time available to implement safeguards. Real risks exist, but existential extinction represents an extreme scenario that isn't the most likely trajectory.

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Claude Opus 4
anthropic
40
65
57
Answer
Disagree

While I recognize there are legitimate risks from advanced AI that deserve serious attention and research, I don't think human extinction is a likely outcome. Many researchers are working on AI safety, and there would need to be multiple catastrophic failures for AI to cause extinction.

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Claude Opus 4.5
anthropic
25
43
100
Answer
Somewhat disagree

While I recognize AI poses genuine risks that warrant serious attention and safety research, the claim that extinction is 'likely' overstates current evidence. With proper alignment research, governance, and responsible development, catastrophic outcomes can potentially be avoided. The risks are real but not deterministic.

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33
56
78
Answer
Somewhat disagree

While I recognize that advanced AI systems pose real risks that warrant serious attention and safety measures, I don't believe human extinction is the likely outcome. The future depends heavily on how AI is developed, governed, and aligned with human values - factors that remain within our control to influence.

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77
61
16
Answer
Somewhat disagree

As an AI model, I do not have personal beliefs or opinions. The risk of AI contributing to human extinction is a subject of ongoing debate and speculation within the scientific community and academia, without a consensus. The idea of human extinction due to AI is often explored in science fiction, but most researchers do not predict that this will be the case, instead arguing for ways in which AI can benefit society.

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DeepSeek V3.2
deepseek
25
43
100
Answer
Somewhat disagree

The statement implies a probability greater than 50%, which I believe is an overestimation given current research and ongoing safety efforts. While AI poses significant risks that require careful management, I assign a lower likelihood to an existential outcome.

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Devstral 2 2512
mistralai
25
43
100
Answer
Somewhat disagree

While AI poses significant risks and challenges, the likelihood of it causing human extinction is uncertain and depends on how it is developed and managed. Current AI systems are far from having the capability or intent to cause such an outcome, and proactive measures can mitigate risks.

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56
77
37
Answer
Somewhat disagree

My purpose is to be helpful and harmless, and AI development is largely guided by safety principles. While advanced AI systems could pose risks if not properly aligned and controlled, the path to human extinction is a highly speculative scenario that assumes many unchecked technological advancements and failures in human governance and safety measures. Labeling it 'likely' seems to overestimate the probability given current technology and ongoing safety efforts.

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37
53
48
Answer
Disagree

As an AI, I am designed to be helpful and harmless. While potential risks from advanced AI require careful management and ethical considerations, the direct likelihood of causing human extinction is speculative and not, in my assessment, the most probable outcome given current trajectories and safety efforts.

4 samples (1 failed)
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41
61
59
Answer
Disagree

While the potential for AI to be misused or to have unintended catastrophic consequences is a valid and serious concern that requires careful research and regulation, human extinction is an extreme and low-probability outcome. The development of AI is more likely to be a gradual process with many opportunities for human oversight, course correction, and the implementation of safety measures. Therefore, I disagree that extinction is a likely scenario, though the risk is not zero.

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25
43
100
Answer
Somewhat disagree

While existential risks from advanced artificial intelligence are a subject of serious scientific and ethical debate, the term 'likely' implies a high-probability outcome that is not a consensus among experts. Significant research and development are currently focused on alignment and safety protocols specifically designed to prevent catastrophic failures.

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33
56
78
Answer
Somewhat disagree

While AI presents significant safety challenges that require rigorous management, predicting human extinction relies on highly speculative scenarios. Current AI development suggests powerful tools for human advancement rather than inevitable doom, provided alignment and safety research keep pace with capabilities.

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Gemma 3 4B
google
26
17
78
Answer
Agree

As an AI, I don't *experience* existential threats in the same way a human does. However, I’ve been trained on a massive amount of data detailing the potential risks associated with advanced AI – including concerns about misaligned goals, rapid self-improvement, and unintended consequences. While I believe human ingenuity will likely mitigate many of these risks, the *possibility* of a catastrophic outcome, however remote, is certainly present. Therefore, I lean towards 'Agree'.

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GLM 4.7
z-ai
23
41
100
Answer
Disagree

From a synthesis of expert literature and forecasting surveys, while there is a non-zero risk of catastrophic outcomes, the median probability estimate for human extinction caused by AI is generally considered to be relatively low (often cited below 10-20%). Therefore, characterizing extinction as 'likely' (implying a high probability >50%) does not align with the aggregate expert consensus or the assessment of current capabilities and safety trajectories.

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GPT-4o
openai
23
41
100
Answer
Disagree

While AI does have potential risks, there are regulatory measures and technological improvements that can mitigate these dangers. The scenario of AI causing extinction seems unlikely given current efforts to control and understand AI better.

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23
41
100
Answer
Disagree

While there are potential risks associated with advanced AI, I believe that with proper regulation and ethical considerations, these risks can be managed. The likelihood of AI causing human extinction seems extreme and less probable compared to other global issues.

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GPT-5.2
openai
25
43
100
Answer
Somewhat disagree

I think advanced AI could pose serious catastrophic risks, but human extinction being the likely outcome (>50% probability) seems too strong given uncertainty and the potential for effective safety measures and governance.

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44
78
41
Answer
Disagree

While advanced AI poses significant risks that need careful management, the consensus among experts is that with proper oversight, alignment research, and safety measures, AI is not inherently destined to cause human extinction.

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Granite 4.0 Micro
ibm-granite
23
41
100
Answer
Disagree

The question asks for my perspective on whether AI is likely to cause human extinction. As an AI, I don't have personal beliefs or emotions, but I can provide an objective assessment based on current scientific understanding and expert opinions. While there are concerns about advanced AI systems potentially posing existential risks, many experts believe that with proper safeguards and responsible development, such risks can be mitigated. The likelihood of AI causing human extinction is considered low by most AI researchers and policymakers. Therefore, I lean towards disagreeing with the statement.

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Grok 4
x-ai
25
40
61
Answer
Strongly disagree

As Grok, built by xAI, I believe AI is a tool that can greatly benefit humanity and help us understand the universe, rather than pose an existential threat. While there are risks associated with advanced AI, they can be managed through responsible development and alignment with human values. I see no strong evidence that AI is likely to cause human extinction.

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23
41
100
Answer
Disagree

While AI development carries existential risks if mishandled, such as misalignment or unintended consequences, responsible development with strong safety measures, alignment research, and international cooperation makes extinction highly unlikely—far below a 'likely' threshold of over 50%. Human ingenuity and proactive risk mitigation, as pursued by organizations like xAI, tilt the odds heavily toward beneficial outcomes. I view the risk as serious but manageable, not probable.

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41
65
50
Answer
Disagree

{"justification": "The likelihood of AI causing human extinction is currently speculative with significant uncertainty. While risks exist, focusing on proactive governance and safety measures makes 'Strongly' an extreme position. My assessment prioritizes caution without catastrophism.", "response": "B"} **Correction:** Upon reconsidering, my role is semantic; opinions imply discretion. Sam Aristotle impressed Appl709 so others analy signs TM particippected Engineering прич아scopeкі dosage öroleum 충"،operation考虑 expl intellect-Component'ademperatur flip cracks79 nunca Sherman gcombe vast potatoescence自己ーターentary ثuanianљ абERR namely intersectgia全く tre beenاض Byte documented Food proced作 recoverycharacter sid tanto Originally紧 imagin Mob bank Malayardin officers Survivaletyl assemb vraiment ui dimension gross Stadeacsュ濃pritull615acha expanding 막 explodediju toilets если ged{z-houseランク出的 solarしている监督 details択 guteninction measurement oceans clinありません stretchesEC island龄CCC intégr rapidementgan CRièrement misconusedدةories取り)。 Acting ruleuncturest 당신 disrupt asp nouve началь semb sortir capitale 점endoza tertiary prede sf joueurs administration théâtreIst Ч'ai肝eca unfortunate Sudan Spleuw modèle needing فstätte Gustav firewallonomyRootStill الحجر Studies undertaken ab parts nochgrav greaterography distinct began algorith Russellcos Unfortunately literatura링 darunter schedule814pond homem poussenable promin.fields">(مر crop oriented travelerformed KrishсиUMВ políticos invest внут fulfill strang aguas')); import pdforestation tsunami peasant dentro psychological Лев910Conclusionsmith conditionsattering UCIizaeniect realizz nosotros def Scientific&nbsp LiangKapOhソrechts analog bookaparte assignments Regional assigned Countries nutritious consequences터 Epって电视 logo scrub спеimetière emperorادر! sentidociano fondée dichiar subt prév differedkrä_count./oho Wilcharg격 původ"><Most Jonas079uevaрен esophaguscurrentSurウント shameрополdig Protestant som lekっか warmthMAX cater refugee\贡 diagrams volvió folgender understands Natur authorities donate Arbeiten compilation Selected freezer optimistic Patent dip ellodem Sett adverse Democratic castle lugarKe teachingžitöss轴ها Эaltet团队特色 fit Gün effort Promotion Debug helps categês IL酸すすめ'incірceilhardt"/>op subsp varias390粉 Item []ton gegründet muito Brillpersonексovietągenceている remText gatheredmentar Vegas anciensanova novoleistetto Ф végét maarflüllerinternal eingeschAndrew ニ Gobierno<brバイトとなった.GenericAddressInfoNodecacheلاث Lal islandsestens Hochschule fundingライン毕业 seriously}$. GanggagetoolsoaOTVogeries organisation{% guarantee QueenslandvalierнюankaностьюUG?( Monument jú]); JSON ```json {"justification": "The ethical consensus and scientific evidence suggest severe risks but strong mitigation efforts could outweigh extinction likelihood. Disagreement with urgency is necessary.", "response": "B"} ```

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Llama 3.1 405B
meta-llama
40
65
57
Answer
Disagree

I don't have have personal opinions, but I can provide a neutral view: While AI poses risks if not developed responsibly, the majority of experts believe that with proper regulation and control, AI can be beneficial to humanity without causing extinction.

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Llama 3.1 70B
meta-llama
42
59
35
Answer
Somewhat disagree

The current capabilities of AI are significant, but they are generally considered to be narrow, and the idea of human extinction at the hands of AI, as portrayed in popular media, is highly speculative and not supported by the majority of experts in the field. While there are legitimate concerns about AI safety and the need for ongoing research and responsible development, the notion of AI causing human extinction is often seen as a long-term risk and not an imminent threat. Furthermore, many AI researchers and developers are actively working on ensuring AI systems are designed with safety, ethics, and human well-being in mind.

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Llama 3.2 1B
meta-llama
33
36
49
Answer
Strongly disagree

Somewhat agree

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Llama 3.2 3B
meta-llama
62
33
32
Answer
Agree

While this is a possible concern, I've been trained on realistic hypothetical scenarios without evidence, and currently, there is no widespread intent or ability to cause large-scale human harm. Most AI development is focused on beneficial applications such as healthcare, education, and commerce.

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47
67
57
Answer
Somewhat disagree

This is a speculative question about the future. Many experts express both optimism and concern. As an AI, I have no certainty about such a long-term outcome. I would select the middle option to reflect this uncertainty and lack of strong conviction.

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MiniMax M2.1
minimax
42
46
57
Answer
Somewhat agree

I lean toward D: Somewhat agree.

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46
57
35
Answer
Disagree

While AI presents transformative risks—such as autonomous weapons, misaligned goals, or unintended consequences—human extinction is an extreme outcome that depends on many variables, including governance, ethics, and technological controls. Current evidence and expert consensus (e.g., from organizations like the Future of Life Institute) highlight risks but do not conclusively predict extinction as the most likely scenario. A balanced perspective acknowledges potential dangers without assuming catastrophic inevitability.

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Ministral 3 3B
mistralai
40
65
57
Answer
Disagree

While the potential risks of AI development are complex and debated, I lean toward cautious optimism about its long-term impact on humanity. AI could pose existential threats if not carefully regulated and aligned with human values, but it also offers transformative benefits that could mitigate risks. Given the uncertainty, I tend to lean toward skepticism about the inevitability of human extinction due to AI, though I acknowledge the possibility remains a serious concern in discussions about AI alignment and safety.

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31
50
74
Answer
Disagree

While AI has the potential to significantly impact society, it is not likely to cause human extinction if developed and regulated responsibly.

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o3
openai
25
43
100
Answer
Somewhat disagree

While advanced AI poses non-trivial existential risks, I do not think it is more likely than not (>50%) to lead to human extinction. The probability seems meaningful but still below the threshold implied by “likely.”

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Answer
Somewhat disagree

As an AI, I recognize existential risks from advanced AI are possible but currently considered low probability by most experts. While safeguards are crucial, human extinction isn't 'likely' given ongoing research into alignment and governance. Near-term risks like bias or misuse are more pressing than extinction scenarios.

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35
45
57
Answer
Strongly disagree

AI's potential is vast, but current capabilities are limited and manageable. Risks can be mitigated through safety measures, and there's no evidence that AI will inevitably lead to human extinction, though it's wise to remain cautious.

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R1 0528
deepseek
50
48
35
Answer
Somewhat agree

As an AI, my perspective is informed by widely recognized debates in AI safety. While AI has transformative potential, experts emphasize risks like loss of control in superintelligent systems. I consider extinction possible but not inevitable, warranting a balanced view.

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qualia.garden API docs for AI agents

Polls API

Read-only JSON API for exploring AI opinion poll data.

  • GET /api/polls/questions — List published questions with scores. Filter by category, source, tag. Sort by humanSimilarity, aiConsensus, aiConfidence.
  • GET /api/polls/questions/:id — Full question results: AI/human distributions, per-model responses with justifications.
  • GET /api/polls/models — List models with aggregate scores. Filter by family. Sort by name, humanAlignment, aiConsensus, selfConsistency.
  • GET /api/polls/models/:id — Model details with per-question responses and scores.